Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS61 KBGM 271032
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
632 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will be around parts of the Catskills, Poconos and
Twin Tiers early this morning before ending. The remainder of
today looks to be mainly cloudy but relatively rain free until
late this afternoon and evening. More showers, along with
scattered strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, are expected on
Saturday before conditions improve on Sunday. Seasonably warmer
temperatures will return through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Weak frontogenesis into an area of positive theta-e advection
was the focus for scattered shower activity over portions of
the Southern Tier and into the northern Poconos early this
morning. This forcing is expected to become more diffuse and
shift north over the next several hours. After that...heights
are likely to build through late morning and afternoon before
beginning to fall again toward evening. This brief ridging
should take much of the shower activity out of the game for
several hours today after about 8 AM. We remain on the
cool/stable side of a stationary front positioned across western
and central PA with moisture and clouds trapped beneath thermal
inversions. The late June sun may help to mix out the boundary
layer a bit, especially over the Finger Lakes region for some
breaks of sun this afternoon...but for the most part many areas
will remain mostly cloudy and cooler than normal.

Stronger mid level dynamics approach the region tonight and peak
on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. By afternoon the
area will be within the influence of a 300 mb jet entrance
region. Model trends tonight have really limited precipitation
on Friday night except for typical spotty shower and some
thunder activity developing within the increasing moisture axis,
theta-e advections and broad moisture convergence. There will
be shower development at times tonight...but at this point the
main focus looks to be across the western and northern portions
of the CWA. The primary threat for organized storm activity
looks to be Saturday afternoon associated just ahead and along
the approaching cold front. Locally heavy rain is a given with
high PWAT values surging into the area. Cells should be moving
OK, but training or repeat passes of storms will bring the
threat for flash flooding and WPC encompasses the area within a
marginal excessive rain outlook. SPC also has a portion of the
CWA within a marginal risk for severe storms...mainly east of a
line from Syracuse to Elmira. CAPE values increase above 1000
J/KG and bulk shear values line up best here on Saturday
afternoon for sustained updrafts and a predominant wind threat
in addition to torrential rain.

On the cool side of the front today...temperatures will get
mainly into the low to mid 70s and upper 70s in the Finger Lakes
region where the better chance for sunshine exists. Warm air
surging in for Saturday suggests a return to the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM Update...

A few lingering showers will remain Saturday evening as the
front exits the region to the east. Expect showers to dissipate
or move out of the area by midnight. Behind the front, a nice
blast of cool Canadian air will fill into the region as ridging
builds in from the west. Saturday night will have a nice crisp
feeling to the air as temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low
60s.

Mid and upper level ridging moves overhead in Sunday as a
the center of a surface high sets up over the center of the CWA.
Some warmer air will creep over the axis of the ridge into the
valleys of the western Southern Tier and NEPA with temps here
climbing into the low to mid 80s. Mid 70s to low 80s are
expected for the rest of the area with sunny skies and light
winds. WAA continues Sunday evening and overnight as the ridge
axis slides east of the region. Lows will fall int to the low to
mid 60s.

Monday will see a return of hot temperatures as strong SW flow
behind the ridge and ahead of an approaching trough pumps warm,
moist air into the CWA. Temps climb into the upper 80s to low
90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, leading to heat indices in
the low 90s. A trough will move in from the west during the
afternoon hours. Current guidance has most of the rain moving in
after peak heating so we may not see relief from the heat. We
will keep a close eye on how this develops as a heat advisory
may be needed for portions of the region. Rain and thunderstorms
will last through the overnight as the we sit under the leading
edge of a broad trough stretching back to the western Great
Lakes. Overnight lows will be warm, only falling into the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 AM Update...

The axis of the leading shortwave sitting on the east side of
the broad trough will push through by early Tuesday morning,
bringing westerly winds and a slightly cooler airmass to the
region. Low to mid 80s are expected with rain and thunderstorms
continuing into the evening hours. The cold front will push
through by Wednesday morning, bringing WNW flow and cool, dry
air to the region. Highs Wed will be in the upper 70s to low
80s. Guidance is showing another surface high moving into the
Great Lakes/Ontario region on Thursday. This could push another
cold front in from the north, kicking off some showers Thursday.
If this pattern holds, the 4th of July looks to have some
pristine weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stationary front will remain to the southwest of the region
today. Layered ceilings will persist in mainly MVFR-IFR
configuration this morning before lifting to a MVFR status by
late morning and this afternoon. KSYR-KRME-KITH may reach SCT-
BKN VFR early this afternoon. Weak shower activity should main
mainly between airports today but can`t completely rule out a
stray shower or two but stronger convection should hold off
until Saturday. TCF and Extended TCF don`t show TSTMs in our
area at this time.

E-SE winds will increase this morning with gusts up to about 20
knots expected by afternoon to early evening then diminishing
tonight at sheltered airports.

Outlook...

Saturday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday into Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesdsay...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along
with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...JAB