Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

152
FXUS61 KBGM 250526
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
126 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild tonight and warm tomorrow with increasing chances of rain
and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. A strong cold
front moves through Saturday with cooler and windy conditions
into Sunday before warm weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1140 PM Update...

Added chances for isolated thunderstorms for areas between
Syracuse and Binghamton for the next few hours as surface
convergence strengthens. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


930 PM Update...

Some minor PoP adjustments made at this time for isolated
showers that continue to linger this evening. One thing that
will be examined with the next forecast package as the rest of
the 00z data comes in is increasing winds Saturday through
Sunday in the wake of the cold frontal passage Saturday.
Soundings suggest wind gusts around 25-30 mph can be common
during this time for much of the area.

635 PM Update...

Isolated showers and even a thunderstorm have popped up along a
weak boundary located across the Southern Tier, although most of
what has developed is not reaching the ground with dry air at
the surface. Based on current obs and where lightning is being
detected, did extend isolated showers/thundershowers an extra
couple of hours early this evening, especially in the Catskills,
then dry conditions are expected the rest of the night. Minor
tweaks to temperatures, dew points and wind at this time.

200 PM Update...

Some agitated cumulus has developed this afternoon and SPC
mesoanalysis shows some weak instability has developed of around
500 J/kg of CAPE. Looking at water vapor, there is dry air in
the mid levels so that will likely limit updraft depths with dry
air entrainment but a few showers could develop into
thunderstorms with the heat. Isolated thunderstorms were added
to the grids through the late afternoon when day time heating is
lost.

A warm front lifts in tonight though forecast soundings dont
have as much elevated CAPE today so chances were taken out
overnight though would not be surprised if there is one or two
showers that develop. With continued moisture advection and day
time heating, better instability exist tomorrow but better
forcing does not arrive till late afternoon and evening. Given
the confidence of showers and thunderstorms overnight, coverage
was used rather than uncertainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 PM Update...

A cold front will be pushing eastward across the region during
the day on Saturday, with showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. Showers will become more isolated to scattered
overnight Saturday as lingering wrap around moisture pushes
into Central NY. Temperatures turn much cooler behind the front
as well, with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s as cold air
advection takes hold on NW winds. The winds will be fairly
strong at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph expected Saturday night
and through the day on Sunday. High pressure will dry things
out for Sunday and ridging will start pushing warmer air back
into the region. Mostly sunny skies and good boundary layer
mixing will push highs into the mid-50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
135 PM Update

A ridge of high pressure will be in place for the start of next
week. Temperatures will once again climb above normal across the
region on Monday, as highs reach the upper 60s to low 70s. The
ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday morning, with 850mb
temperatures peaking around +14 C in the afternoon. Guidance
supports high reaching well above average levels in the upper
70s to low/mid-80s over the entire region. However, our next
cold front will likely be approaching late in the day Tuesday.
Still a lot of uncertainty on the overall timing of the front,
and if the front arrives in the late afternoon hours around peak
heating, then more instability will be available and thus a
higher potential for thunderstorms. This will be something to
watch closely as we get closer in time and see more details.
Some guidance is showing deep layer shear on the order of 40-50
kts as well, so severe potential will depend on the timing of
the incoming cold front.

By Wednesday, the cold front will be sliding south with just a
low chance for a few lingering showers. There will be the
potential for a large temperature gradient...with 60s to low 70s
in CNY/Southern Tier and well into the 70s expected for NE
PA...if current frontal timing holds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for all terminals through 00Z Saturday.
An incoming front will bring stratiform rain that will gradually
deteriorate after 00Z, falling to MVFR between 01Z and 03Z.
Probability for conditions to worsen to IFR around 04/05Z for
all terminals is increasing, but decided to not include it in
this update due to confidence in timing. This will be the main
focus for the 12Z TAF update.


Outlook...

Friday evening through Saturday... Showers with possible
restrictions.

Saturday night through Monday...Mostly quiet and dry with high
pressure overhead.

Tuesday...Low potential (<30%) for afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/DK
NEAR TERM...AJG/DK/KL
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL